"It is the goal of the next conservative President to dismantle the Administrative State and return self-governance to the American people." - Mandate for Leadership, Page 1
U.S. launched military strike on Venezuela, bombing military installations. Special Forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. First U.S. military intervention in Latin America in decades. Prediction markets for Panama Canal/Greenland actions spiked following operation.
"Largest immigration operation ever" - ICE Acting Director Lyons. 2,000 federal agents deployed to Twin Cities following welfare fraud allegations linked to Somali community. Trump previously called Somali residents "garbage." Over 400 arrests in first days. Somali-Americans carrying passports in fear of stops.
"Utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option" - Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed military force on table for Greenland acquisition. Danish PM Frederiksen warned this could end NATO. Prediction markets: 38% odds U.S. takes control of Greenland, 35% for Panama Canal. Sen. Gallego introduced resolution to block invasion.
ICE agent fatally shot Renee Good during protest against immigration raids, blocks from where George Floyd was killed in 2020. Protests intensified with tear gas, rubber bullets, sound cannons deployed. Mayor accused ICE of wrongfully arresting U.S. citizen "because he looked Somali."
"Most extensive retreat from global cooperation in modern history." Acting on Feb 2025 review, U.S. exits 66 international bodies including UN climate treaty framework. $800M peacekeeping support cancelled. UN peacekeeping forces to be cut 25%.
Secretary of War to identify underperforming contractors. Executive compensation must be tied to on-time delivery and production capacity, not short-term financial metrics. Targets stock buybacks over military readiness.
One year after Trump's Jan 20, 2025 executive order, U.S. officially exits World Health Organization. U.S. provided ~18% of WHO's budget ($690M in 2024). Withdrawal affects global pandemic preparedness, vaccine programs, and health data sharing. WHO Constitution requires 1-year notice.
One year after notification, U.S. officially exits Paris Climate Agreement. U.S. has second-highest GHG emissions globally. 194 other countries representing ~90% of emissions remain in agreement. No other nation has withdrawn.
First time since 1972 with no bilateral US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty in force. New START limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems. Russia suspended participation Feb 2023 but continued observing limits. Putin offered 1-year mutual extension (Sep 2025); US position unclear. Combined arsenals: ~10,600 warheads (87% of world total). INF Treaty ended 2019, Open Skies 2020-21.
New DHS rule published Dec 29, 2025 changes H-1B visa lottery to "weighted selection process." Takes effect Feb 27, 2026. Significant changes to high-skilled immigration system.
Current government funding expires Jan 30, 2026. Congressional negotiations with White House will dominate coming weeks. Previous shutdowns accelerated administration goals (e.g., Education Dept closure).
Oral arguments in Barbara v. Trump on constitutionality of ending birthright citizenship. First Trump immigration policy to reach SCOTUS on merits. Ruling expected summer 2026. All affected children currently protected by class-wide injunction.
Administration appealed CIT ruling that IEEPA tariffs exceed presidential authority. Initial arguments: justices appeared skeptical. If tariffs struck down, major recalibration of trade policy required.
14th WTO Ministerial Conference. Key issues: e-commerce moratorium (expires at MC14), dispute settlement reform (appellate body paralyzed since 2019 by US blocking judge appointments), agricultural subsidies, fisheries. US has demanded WTO reforms; conference could determine future of multilateral trading system.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review, occurring weeks after New START expiration. 191 parties will assess nuclear disarmament commitments. US faces scrutiny as only nuclear power to exit major arms control treaties (INF 2019, Open Skies 2020, New START expires Feb 5). Context of expanding Chinese/Russian arsenals and no bilateral limits.
52nd G7 Summit hosted by France. Macron reportedly considering inviting Xi Jinping (Japan objects). Last Macron G7 as French President. Key context: NATO tensions from Greenland dispute, Ukraine negotiations ongoing, US withdrawal from international organizations. First G7 since New START expiration.
Statutory deadline for US, Mexico, Canada to complete 6-year USMCA review. Key issues: China in supply chains (especially Mexico), auto rules of origin, forced labor provisions, ongoing tariff disputes. Failure doesn't end agreement but starts 10-year clock to 2036 expiration. Talks began mid-January 2026.
"If the United States decides to attack another NATO country, then everything would stop – that includes NATO" - Danish PM Frederiksen. Article 5 would require NATO members to defend Denmark against U.S. Sen. Murphy: "Article 5 did not anticipate that the invading country would be a member of NATO." Experts advise Europe to prepare for Greenland annexation and possible end of NATO.
Prediction markets at 38% for U.S. control of Greenland. Greenland PM: "We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken." Strategic value: 31 minerals including lithium, graphite, rare earths needed for EV batteries. 70% of rare earths currently from China. Options discussed: economic pressure, military force, direct purchase.
"We've already started doing it" - Trump, March 4, 2025. 40% of U.S. container shipping transits canal. Claims (disputed) of Chinese control and inflated fees. American company already given control of key ports. Prediction markets: 35% odds of U.S. takeover before 2029.
Administrator Zeldin sent memo in Feb 2025 stating endangerment finding "no longer reflected current science." Full challenge to 2009 finding that GHG emissions are harmful likely to advance. Would eliminate EPA's obligation to regulate carbon emissions.
With final regulations in place, mass reclassification of 50,000+ federal employees as at-will workers expected. Legal challenges ongoing but administration advancing implementation. Union resistance continues.
DOJ expected to expand enforcement of 1873 Comstock Act to prohibit mailing abortion medications. Would effectively create nationwide restriction without congressional action. Legal challenges anticipated.
Congressional Republicans expected to advance formal abolition. More programs transferred to other agencies. School choice initiatives expanded. Title I oversight eliminated. Only congressional action can fully abolish.
622,000+ deportations in 2025 establishes baseline. Operations expected to accelerate with expanded detention capacity (65,000+ currently). Workplace raids, community sweeps continue. State/local cooperation remains key variable.
Elimination of federal funding for NPR, PBS expected in budget negotiations. Administration views taxpayer-funded broadcasting as promotion of liberal viewpoints.
Breaking up NOAA and redistributing functions. Privatization of National Weather Service. Elimination of climate research programs. Defunding of "climate alarmism" science.
Medium confidence Following Minneapolis model, similar 1,000+ agent deployments expected in other metro areas with large immigrant populations: Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Phoenix, Miami. Pattern: target specific ethnic communities, coordinate with local media, overwhelm local resistance.
"ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) should be identified as being primarily responsible for enforcing civil immigration regulations, including the civil arrest, detention, and removal of immigration violators anywhere in the United States."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.139)
Medium confidence Escalation of federal pressure on non-cooperative jurisdictions. Grant withholdings, law enforcement funding cuts, potential criminal referrals against local officials who refuse ICE cooperation. Cities like Denver, Chicago, NYC face billions in federal funding at risk.
"Certification by applicants that they are both registered with E-Verify and using E-Verify in a transparent and nonevasive manner."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.142)
Medium confidence Current capacity ~68,990. New contracts with private prison operators (GEO Group, CoreCivic), military base conversions, and "soft-sided" tent facilities. Mandate calls for ending "catch and release" which requires massive detention expansion. Target: sustained removal operations.
"Mandate that ICE use all detention space in full compliance with Section 235 of the INA, issue weekly reports on detention capacity, and provide authority for low-level temporary capacity (for example, tents) once permanent space is full."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.143)
Medium confidence Following 2008 Postville model, large-scale workplace raids in industries dependent on undocumented labor. Economic disruption used as deterrent. Communities devastated. Children separated from parents at worksites. Legal residents and citizens swept up in operations.
"The use of Blackies Warrants should be operationalized within ICE. These civil search warrants are commonly used for worksite enforcement when agents have probable cause that illegal aliens are employed at a business."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.141)
High confidence ICE has already rescinded Obama-era limits on enforcement near schools, churches, hospitals. 2026 will see arrests at these locations become routine. Parents afraid to take children to school. Church-based sanctuary efforts criminalized.
Federal fiscal year 2027 begins. Congress must pass appropriations or continuing resolution. Politically sensitive: exactly 5 weeks before midterm elections. Shutdown could become campaign issue; administration may leverage for policy wins.
UN Climate Change Conference hosted by Turkey with Australia leading negotiations. First COP since US Paris Agreement withdrawal (Jan 27). Pre-COP meeting on Pacific island. Focus: closing emissions gap, climate finance (NCQG), loss and damage. US absence reshapes dynamics; China/EU expected to fill leadership vacuum.
21st G20 Summit hosted at Trump's Doral resort ("at-cost, no profit" per White House). Treasury Secretary Bessent setting agenda: "unleashing economic prosperity...limiting regulations, unlocking affordable energy." Smaller guest list than recent G20s. Poland's President Nawrocki invited. Context: post-midterm, year-end summit.
High confidence The Mandate recommends moving election fraud prosecution from Civil Rights Division to Criminal Division, arguing current approach never "appropriately investigated and prosecuted" fraud. Expect federal prosecutors deployed to swing states, investigations announced pre-election, prosecutorial resources focused on "voter fraud" vs. voter suppression.
"Voter registration fraud and unlawful ballot correction will remain federal election offenses that are never appropriately investigated and prosecuted."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 17: Department of Justice (p.563)
High confidence Aggressive voter roll "maintenance" in states with Republican election officials. Following Georgia model: mass challenges to registrations, strict signature matching, reduced early voting. Citizens purged must re-register or cast provisional ballots.
Medium confidence With "sensitive locations" policy eliminated, ICE checkpoints and operations in immigrant-heavy precincts create de facto voter intimidation. Federal enforcement presence near polling places historically depresses Latino turnout. Courts may struggle to issue timely relief.
High confidence New restrictions on mail voting in Republican-controlled states. Shorter windows, stricter ID requirements, signature matching rejections. Following 2020 playbook: pre-position legal challenges to mail ballots, claim fraud before votes counted.
Medium confidence Breaking DOJ norms, announcements of investigations into Democratic candidates close to election. Pattern from 2016 Comey letter. With DOJ under direct presidential control per Mandate, no institutional resistance to political timing of prosecutorial announcements.
"The department has sued multiple states regarding their efforts to enhance election integrity."
— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 17: Department of Justice (p.545)
Medium confidence If results unfavorable: claims of fraud, demands for recounts, pressure on state officials to delay/refuse certification. 2020 playbook with federal DOJ now aligned with administration. State-level officials face pressure campaign. Alternative electors strategy possible.
Medium confidence If Republicans retain majorities, post-election session before new Congress is window to pass major legislation: codifying Schedule F, Education Dept abolition, immigration restrictions, NOAA breakup. If lost, rush to lock in as much as possible via executive action.