Independent Research Project — Tracking implementation of the Heritage Foundation's "Mandate for Leadership"
Implementation & Enforcement Tracker
Policy Directive

Taking the Reins of Government

"It is the goal of the next conservative President to dismantle the Administrative State and return self-governance to the American people." - Mandate for Leadership, Page 1

Heritage Foundation
Published April 2023
Implementation
Tracking Executive Actions, Agency Changes, Policy Shifts
Timeline
2025 (Historical) → 2026 (Current) → 2030 (Projected)
920
Pages in Mandate
30+
Federal Agencies Targeted
2025–2030
Implementation Timeline
4
Pillars of Policy
Current Year

2026

Year Two: Entrenchment & Escalation

2026 Key Dates

JAN 22
WHO Exit Effective
FEB 5
New START Expires
JUL 1
USMCA Review Deadline
NOV 3
MIDTERM ELECTIONS
MAR 26
WTO MC14 (Cameroon)
JUN 14
G7 Summit (France)
NOV 9
COP31 (Turkey)
DEC 14
G20 Summit (Miami)

January 2026 - Already Implemented

Military Strike
JAN 3, 2026
Implemented
Venezuela

Operation Absolute Resolve - Venezuela Strike

U.S. launched military strike on Venezuela, bombing military installations. Special Forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. First U.S. military intervention in Latin America in decades. Prediction markets for Panama Canal/Greenland actions spiked following operation.

ICE Operation
JAN 6, 2026
Implemented
Immigration

Operation Metro Surge - 2,000 Agents to Minneapolis

"Largest immigration operation ever" - ICE Acting Director Lyons. 2,000 federal agents deployed to Twin Cities following welfare fraud allegations linked to Somali community. Trump previously called Somali residents "garbage." Over 400 arrests in first days. Somali-Americans carrying passports in fear of stops.

White House
JAN 6, 2026
Implemented
Territorial

Military Option for Greenland Confirmed

"Utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option" - Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed military force on table for Greenland acquisition. Danish PM Frederiksen warned this could end NATO. Prediction markets: 38% odds U.S. takes control of Greenland, 35% for Panama Canal. Sen. Gallego introduced resolution to block invasion.

Shooting
JAN 7, 2026
Implemented
Immigration

Minneapolis - ICE Agent Kills Protestor

ICE agent fatally shot Renee Good during protest against immigration raids, blocks from where George Floyd was killed in 2020. Protests intensified with tear gas, rubber bullets, sound cannons deployed. Mayor accused ICE of wrongfully arresting U.S. citizen "because he looked Somali."

Executive Order
JAN 7, 2026
Implemented
International

Withdrawal from 66 International Organizations

"Most extensive retreat from global cooperation in modern history." Acting on Feb 2025 review, U.S. exits 66 international bodies including UN climate treaty framework. $800M peacekeeping support cancelled. UN peacekeeping forces to be cut 25%.

Executive Order
JAN 7, 2026
Implemented
Defense

Defense Contractor Executive Pay Tied to Performance

Secretary of War to identify underperforming contractors. Executive compensation must be tied to on-time delivery and production capacity, not short-term financial metrics. Targets stock buybacks over military readiness.

Late January 2026 - Imminent

Treaty Exit
JAN 22, 2026
Imminent
Healthcare

WHO Withdrawal Takes Effect

One year after Trump's Jan 20, 2025 executive order, U.S. officially exits World Health Organization. U.S. provided ~18% of WHO's budget ($690M in 2024). Withdrawal affects global pandemic preparedness, vaccine programs, and health data sharing. WHO Constitution requires 1-year notice.

Treaty Exit
JAN 27, 2026
Imminent
Climate

Paris Agreement Withdrawal Takes Effect

One year after notification, U.S. officially exits Paris Climate Agreement. U.S. has second-highest GHG emissions globally. 194 other countries representing ~90% of emissions remain in agreement. No other nation has withdrawn.

Treaty Expiration
FEB 5, 2026
Imminent
Military

New START Treaty Expires - No US-Russia Nuclear Limits

First time since 1972 with no bilateral US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty in force. New START limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems. Russia suspended participation Feb 2023 but continued observing limits. Putin offered 1-year mutual extension (Sep 2025); US position unclear. Combined arsenals: ~10,600 warheads (87% of world total). INF Treaty ended 2019, Open Skies 2020-21.

DHS Rule
FEB 27, 2026
Pending
Immigration

Weighted H-1B Selection Process

New DHS rule published Dec 29, 2025 changes H-1B visa lottery to "weighted selection process." Takes effect Feb 27, 2026. Significant changes to high-skilled immigration system.

Budget
JAN 30, 2026
Deadline
Government

Government Funding Deadline

Current government funding expires Jan 30, 2026. Congressional negotiations with White House will dominate coming weeks. Previous shutdowns accelerated administration goals (e.g., Education Dept closure).

Spring 2026 - Scheduled & Projected

SCOTUS
SPRING 2026
Scheduled
Immigration

Birthright Citizenship - Supreme Court Arguments

Oral arguments in Barbara v. Trump on constitutionality of ending birthright citizenship. First Trump immigration policy to reach SCOTUS on merits. Ruling expected summer 2026. All affected children currently protected by class-wide injunction.

SCOTUS
2026
Pending
Trade

Tariff Authority - Supreme Court Review

Administration appealed CIT ruling that IEEPA tariffs exceed presidential authority. Initial arguments: justices appeared skeptical. If tariffs struck down, major recalibration of trade policy required.

WTO Conference
MAR 26-29, 2026
Scheduled
Trade

WTO MC14 Ministerial Conference - Yaoundé, Cameroon

14th WTO Ministerial Conference. Key issues: e-commerce moratorium (expires at MC14), dispute settlement reform (appellate body paralyzed since 2019 by US blocking judge appointments), agricultural subsidies, fisheries. US has demanded WTO reforms; conference could determine future of multilateral trading system.

UN Conference
APR 27 - MAY 22, 2026
Scheduled
Military

NPT 11th Review Conference - UN HQ, New York

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review, occurring weeks after New START expiration. 191 parties will assess nuclear disarmament commitments. US faces scrutiny as only nuclear power to exit major arms control treaties (INF 2019, Open Skies 2020, New START expires Feb 5). Context of expanding Chinese/Russian arsenals and no bilateral limits.

Summit
JUN 14-16, 2026
Scheduled
International

G7 Summit - Évian-les-Bains, France

52nd G7 Summit hosted by France. Macron reportedly considering inviting Xi Jinping (Japan objects). Last Macron G7 as French President. Key context: NATO tensions from Greenland dispute, Ukraine negotiations ongoing, US withdrawal from international organizations. First G7 since New START expiration.

Trade Deadline
JUL 1, 2026
Deadline
Trade

USMCA Joint Review Deadline

Statutory deadline for US, Mexico, Canada to complete 6-year USMCA review. Key issues: China in supply chains (especially Mexico), auto rules of origin, forced labor provisions, ongoing tariff disputes. Failure doesn't end agreement but starts 10-year clock to 2036 expiration. Talks began mid-January 2026.

Q1-Q2 2026 - Emerging Crises

Crisis
2026
Escalating
NATO

NATO Alliance in Crisis Over Greenland

"If the United States decides to attack another NATO country, then everything would stop – that includes NATO" - Danish PM Frederiksen. Article 5 would require NATO members to defend Denmark against U.S. Sen. Murphy: "Article 5 did not anticipate that the invading country would be a member of NATO." Experts advise Europe to prepare for Greenland annexation and possible end of NATO.

Territorial
2026
38% Odds
Territorial

Greenland Acquisition - Military or Economic

Prediction markets at 38% for U.S. control of Greenland. Greenland PM: "We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken." Strategic value: 31 minerals including lithium, graphite, rare earths needed for EV batteries. 70% of rare earths currently from China. Options discussed: economic pressure, military force, direct purchase.

Territorial
2026
35% Odds
Territorial

Panama Canal "Reclamation"

"We've already started doing it" - Trump, March 4, 2025. 40% of U.S. container shipping transits canal. Claims (disputed) of Chinese control and inflated fees. American company already given control of key ports. Prediction markets: 35% odds of U.S. takeover before 2029.

Q2-Q4 2026 - Policy Projections

Regulatory
Q2 2026
Projected
Environment

EPA Endangerment Finding Challenge

Administrator Zeldin sent memo in Feb 2025 stating endangerment finding "no longer reflected current science." Full challenge to 2009 finding that GHG emissions are harmful likely to advance. Would eliminate EPA's obligation to regulate carbon emissions.

Personnel
2026
Projected
Civil Service

Full Schedule Policy/Career Implementation

With final regulations in place, mass reclassification of 50,000+ federal employees as at-will workers expected. Legal challenges ongoing but administration advancing implementation. Union resistance continues.

DOJ Enforcement
2026
Projected
Healthcare

Comstock Act Enforcement Expansion

DOJ expected to expand enforcement of 1873 Comstock Act to prohibit mailing abortion medications. Would effectively create nationwide restriction without congressional action. Legal challenges anticipated.

Budget
2026
Projected
Education

Education Department Further Dismantled

Congressional Republicans expected to advance formal abolition. More programs transferred to other agencies. School choice initiatives expanded. Title I oversight eliminated. Only congressional action can fully abolish.

Immigration
2026
Projected
Immigration

Mass Deportation Operations Continue

622,000+ deportations in 2025 establishes baseline. Operations expected to accelerate with expanded detention capacity (65,000+ currently). Workplace raids, community sweeps continue. State/local cooperation remains key variable.

Agency Action
2026
Projected
Media

Corporation for Public Broadcasting Defunding

Elimination of federal funding for NPR, PBS expected in budget negotiations. Administration views taxpayer-funded broadcasting as promotion of liberal viewpoints.

Regulatory
2026
Projected
Climate

NOAA Restructuring Advances

Breaking up NOAA and redistributing functions. Privatization of National Weather Service. Elimination of climate research programs. Defunding of "climate alarmism" science.

Summer 2026 - Immigration Enforcement Escalation

ICE Operations
SUMMER 2026
Projected
Immigration

Nationwide "Operation Metro Surge" Expansion

Medium confidence Following Minneapolis model, similar 1,000+ agent deployments expected in other metro areas with large immigrant populations: Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Phoenix, Miami. Pattern: target specific ethnic communities, coordinate with local media, overwhelm local resistance.

"ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) should be identified as being primarily responsible for enforcing civil immigration regulations, including the civil arrest, detention, and removal of immigration violators anywhere in the United States."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.139)
ICE Operations
2026
Projected
Immigration

Sanctuary City Federal Funding Cutoffs

Medium confidence Escalation of federal pressure on non-cooperative jurisdictions. Grant withholdings, law enforcement funding cuts, potential criminal referrals against local officials who refuse ICE cooperation. Cities like Denver, Chicago, NYC face billions in federal funding at risk.

"Certification by applicants that they are both registered with E-Verify and using E-Verify in a transparent and nonevasive manner."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.142)
ICE Operations
2026
Projected
Immigration

Detention Capacity Expansion to 100,000+

Medium confidence Current capacity ~68,990. New contracts with private prison operators (GEO Group, CoreCivic), military base conversions, and "soft-sided" tent facilities. Mandate calls for ending "catch and release" which requires massive detention expansion. Target: sustained removal operations.

"Mandate that ICE use all detention space in full compliance with Section 235 of the INA, issue weekly reports on detention capacity, and provide authority for low-level temporary capacity (for example, tents) once permanent space is full."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.143)
ICE Operations
2026
Projected
Immigration

Workplace Raids Intensify - Meatpacking, Agriculture, Construction

Medium confidence Following 2008 Postville model, large-scale workplace raids in industries dependent on undocumented labor. Economic disruption used as deterrent. Communities devastated. Children separated from parents at worksites. Legal residents and citizens swept up in operations.

"The use of Blackies Warrants should be operationalized within ICE. These civil search warrants are commonly used for worksite enforcement when agents have probable cause that illegal aliens are employed at a business."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 5: Department of Homeland Security (p.141)
Immigration
2026
Projected
Immigration

"Sensitive Locations" Policy Eliminated

High confidence ICE has already rescinded Obama-era limits on enforcement near schools, churches, hospitals. 2026 will see arrests at these locations become routine. Parents afraid to take children to school. Church-based sanctuary efforts criminalized.

Fall 2026 - International Calendar

Budget
OCT 1, 2026
Deadline
Government

FY2027 Budget Deadline - Shutdown Risk

Federal fiscal year 2027 begins. Congress must pass appropriations or continuing resolution. Politically sensitive: exactly 5 weeks before midterm elections. Shutdown could become campaign issue; administration may leverage for policy wins.

UN Climate
NOV 9-20, 2026
Scheduled
Climate

COP31 Climate Conference - Antalya, Turkey

UN Climate Change Conference hosted by Turkey with Australia leading negotiations. First COP since US Paris Agreement withdrawal (Jan 27). Pre-COP meeting on Pacific island. Focus: closing emissions gap, climate finance (NCQG), loss and damage. US absence reshapes dynamics; China/EU expected to fill leadership vacuum.

Summit
DEC 14-15, 2026
Scheduled
International

G20 Summit - Trump National Doral, Miami

21st G20 Summit hosted at Trump's Doral resort ("at-cost, no profit" per White House). Treasury Secretary Bessent setting agenda: "unleashing economic prosperity...limiting regulations, unlocking affordable energy." Smaller guest list than recent G20s. Poland's President Nawrocki invited. Context: post-midterm, year-end summit.

November 3, 2026 - Midterm Elections: High Stakes

November 3, 2026: What's At Stake

435
House Seats
34
Senate Seats
36
Governor Races
DOJ
2026
Projected
Elections

DOJ "Election Integrity" Task Forces Deployed

High confidence The Mandate recommends moving election fraud prosecution from Civil Rights Division to Criminal Division, arguing current approach never "appropriately investigated and prosecuted" fraud. Expect federal prosecutors deployed to swing states, investigations announced pre-election, prosecutorial resources focused on "voter fraud" vs. voter suppression.

"Voter registration fraud and unlawful ballot correction will remain federal election offenses that are never appropriately investigated and prosecuted."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 17: Department of Justice (p.563)
Elections
2026
Projected
Elections

Voter Roll Purges in Swing States

High confidence Aggressive voter roll "maintenance" in states with Republican election officials. Following Georgia model: mass challenges to registrations, strict signature matching, reduced early voting. Citizens purged must re-register or cast provisional ballots.

Elections
2026
Projected
Elections

ICE Operations Near Polling Places

Medium confidence With "sensitive locations" policy eliminated, ICE checkpoints and operations in immigrant-heavy precincts create de facto voter intimidation. Federal enforcement presence near polling places historically depresses Latino turnout. Courts may struggle to issue timely relief.

Elections
2026
Projected
Elections

Mail-In Ballot Restrictions & Challenges

High confidence New restrictions on mail voting in Republican-controlled states. Shorter windows, stricter ID requirements, signature matching rejections. Following 2020 playbook: pre-position legal challenges to mail ballots, claim fraud before votes counted.

Media
OCT-NOV 2026
Projected
Elections

"October Surprise" - DOJ Announcements

Medium confidence Breaking DOJ norms, announcements of investigations into Democratic candidates close to election. Pattern from 2016 Comey letter. With DOJ under direct presidential control per Mandate, no institutional resistance to political timing of prosecutorial announcements.

"The department has sued multiple states regarding their efforts to enhance election integrity."

— Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 17: Department of Justice (p.545)
Crisis
NOV 2026
Projected
Elections

Election Night & Aftermath: Certification Battles

Medium confidence If results unfavorable: claims of fraud, demands for recounts, pressure on state officials to delay/refuse certification. 2020 playbook with federal DOJ now aligned with administration. State-level officials face pressure campaign. Alternative electors strategy possible.

Legislation
POST-NOV 2026
Projected
Government

Lame Duck Session: Codifying Executive Actions

Medium confidence If Republicans retain majorities, post-election session before new Congress is window to pass major legislation: codifying Schedule F, Education Dept abolition, immigration restrictions, NOAA breakup. If lost, rush to lock in as much as possible via executive action.